Title page for ETD etd-0515103-095458


Type of Document Master's Thesis
Author Alecsandru, Ciprian Danut
URN etd-0515103-095458
Title A Hybrid Model-Based and Memory-Based Short-Term Traffic Prediction System
Degree Master of Science (M.S.)
Department Civil and Environmental Engineering
Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title
Sherif Ishak Committee Chair
Brian Wolshon Committee Member
Chester Wilmot Committee Member
Keywords
  • atis
  • traffic prediction
  • performance optimization
  • case-based reasoning
  • artificial neural networks
  • speed prediction
  • freeway operation
Date of Defense 2003-04-10
Availability unrestricted
Abstract
Short-term traffic forecasting capabilities on freeways and major arterials have received special attention in the past decade due primarily to their vital role in supporting various travelers' trip decisions and traffic management functions. This research presents a hybrid model-based and memory-based methodology to improve freeway traffic prediction performance. The proposed methodology integrates both approaches to strengthen predictions under both recurrent and non-recurrent conditions. The model-based approach relies on a combination of static and dynamic neural network architectures to achieve optimal prediction performance under various input and traffic condition settings. Concurrently, the memory-based component is derived from the data archival system that encodes the commuters' travel experience in the past. The outcomes of the two approaches are two prediction values for each query case. The two values are subsequently processed by a prediction query manager, which ultimately produces one final prediction value using an error-based decision algorithm. It was found that the hybrid approach produces speed estimates with smaller errors than if the two approaches employed separately. The proposed prediction approach could be used in deriving travel times more reliable as the Traffic Management Centers move towards implementing Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) applications.
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