Type of Document	Master's Thesis
Author	Chen, Bin
Author's Email Address	bchen2@lsu.edu
URN	etd-04132005-173111
Title	Modeling Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation with an Intervening Opportunity Model
Degree	Master of Science in Civil Engineering (M.S.C.E.)
Department	Civil & Environmental Engineering
Advisory Committee	Advisor Name Title Chester Wilmot Committee Chair Brian Wolshon Committee Member Sherif Ishak Committee Member
Keywords	transportation planning evacuation
Date of Defense	2005-03-14
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract In this study, a trip distribution model for hurricane evacuation using the intervening opportunity method was developed. Post Hurricane Floyd survey data was used for model calibration and comparison. To model the behavior that people tend to evacuate away from the path of the hurricane, a new concept of equal destination attractiveness was introduced and an extended intervening opportunity model was built on this basis and implemented in TransCAD. The gravity model, intervening opportunity model and its extended version were compared using several statistical measures. This study demonstrates that it is possible to use the intervening opportunity theory to model trip distribution in hurricane evacuation. The results also show that the gravity model performs slightly better than intervening opportunity model, while the extended intervening opportunity model performs the best among the three models.
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