Title page for ETD etd-04072006-114156


Type of Document Master's Thesis
Author Sinoha-Lopete, Ramona
Author's Email Address rsinoh1@lsu.edu
URN etd-04072006-114156
Title Export-Led Growth in Southern Africa
Degree Master of Science (M.S.)
Department Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness
Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title
Hector O. Zapata Committee Chair
P. Lynn Kennedy Committee Member
Roger Hinson Committee Member
Keywords
  • exogenous variables
  • VAR (p)
  • economic growth
  • exports
  • VARX (p b)
Date of Defense 2006-03-17
Availability unrestricted
Abstract
The objective of this thesis was to examine the validity of the Export-Led Growth

(ELG) hypothesis in nine Southern African countries using annual data for the period

1980-2002. The thesis used time series econometric techniques to test for the causal

linkage between exports and economic growth in Southern Africa. Dynamic econometric

models were estimated to test for time series properties: unit root (ADF and PP tests), cointegration

(Johansen’s procedure), and Granger-causality (Likelihood Ratio test-LR).

The results of the unit root tests show that most of the series are stationary in first

differences (series in levels have unit root—I(1)). Co-integration and causality between

exports and economic growth were tested and compared using two types of bi-variate

vector autoregressive models: models without exogenous variables VAR (p), and models

with exogenous variables VARX (p, b). The results of the co-integration tests on both

types of bi-variate models show that all three Granger-causality alternative models fit the

ELG study for Southern Africa (stationary models; integrated but not co-integrated

models; and Error Correction Models).

In both types of models, the direction of causation (unidirectional or bidirectional)

between GDP and exports was tested using a SUR system of equations by computing the

LR test. Without exogenous variables, the ELG hypothesis is found to be valid in Lesotho

and Swaziland, and, with exogenous variables, it is valid in Botswana, Lesotho, and

Swaziland, implying that expanding exports can contribute to economic growth, poverty

reduction, and job creation in all three countries. This research reveals that, even though

most countries have adopted export-friendly policies, the long-term impact of such

policies is yet to be observed for most countries.

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